What was introduced to lawmakers as a transformational US$2.8 billion mining and infrastructure concession is now confronting a fundamental credibility test, as the Liberian Senate probes whether the Ivanhoe Atlantic/HPX agreement can legally proceed without clear consent from the Government of Guinea and without resolving control of Liberia’s rail system.
The concerns surfaced during a Senate Joint Committee hearing on December 15, where lawmakers questioned whether key preconditions for a cross-border concession had been met before the agreement was submitted for legislative approval.
At the center of the controversy is the absence of any formal reaffirmation from Guinea’s current authorities. Senate records show that the only written communication supporting the project dates back to 2020, under the administration of former Guinean President Alpha Condé. Since Guinea’s 2021 political transition, no new letter of concurrence or no-objection has been produced.
Senate Joint Committee Chair Saah Joseph pressed concession proponents to explain the gap, warning that relying on outdated correspondence risks placing Liberia in breach of international commitments governing shared infrastructure.
The National Investment Commission acknowledged that no response has been received from Guinea’s present government, despite repeated outreach attempts. NIC officials told the committee that letters and follow-ups were sent through the Guinean Embassy in Monrovia during negotiations, but none yielded a formal reply.
That admission triggered further concern among lawmakers, particularly over how diplomatic engagement was handled. Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Abraham D. Dillon criticized the process, arguing that communications of this nature should have been led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs rather than an investment agency, suggesting a procedural lapse that may have undermined the effort.
While uncertainty persists on the Guinean front, government officials sought to reassure senators that Guinea remains economically tied to the project. Transport Minister Sirleaf R. Tyler told lawmakers that Guinea holds a 15 percent equity stake, stands to benefit from rail access fees, and is linked to future plans for a steel facility, factors he said reflect shared interests between the two countries.
Beyond diplomatic consent, the concession also reopened unresolved questions about rail ownership and operational control, particularly the position of ArcelorMittal Liberia, which currently manages the rail corridor central to the project.
Senators Alex J. Taylor and Samuel Kogar questioned whether AML had been formally incorporated into negotiations to prevent future operational conflicts between existing rail users and new entrants under the Ivanhoe–HPX arrangement.
In response, Deputy Minister for Economic Affairs Cllr. Charles D. F. Karmo II explained that AML’s rail rights remain legally protected until 2030, under the second amendment to its mineral development agreement. He said the concession includes provisions for third-party access but is designed to evolve beyond single-operator control.
According to government officials, the long-term plan is to shift rail governance to a state-backed independent body. An Executive Order issued by President Joseph Nyuma Boakai in October 2024 mandated the establishment of a National Rail Authority, which will regulate multi-user access and oversee the rail system after AML’s current mandate expires.
Negotiations are on-going to develop a Standard Operating Principle that would govern how multiple users access the rail corridor, balancing AML’s existing rights with the anticipated entry of new operators such as Ivanhoe–HPX.
As Senate scrutiny deepens, the fate of the concession now hinges on whether unresolved diplomatic, legal, and infrastructure governance questions can be addressed. Without formal Guinean concurrence and a clear framework for rail access, senators signaled that approval of the agreement may remain out of reach.
