The Unity Party government’s announcement of a landmark US$1 billion national budget was hailed as a historic achievement, signaling what officials described as a new era of fiscal ambition for Liberia. Yet, just weeks after the celebration, questions are mounting over whether the target is realistic—especially in light of the absence of ArcelorMittal Liberia’s (AML) US$200 million contribution, a gap publicly acknowledged by Liberia Revenue Authority (LRA) Commissioner General Dorbor Jallah during a Ministry of Information press briefing.
The budget, the largest in Liberia’s history, was presented as a bold step toward economic transformation. Finance officials argue that the figure reflects confidence in Liberia’s growing revenue base, improved tax administration, and reforms aimed at curbing leakages. “This is a defining moment for Liberia,” one senior Unity Party official remarked. “We are demonstrating that our economy can sustain a billion-dollar budget.” Critics, however, say the celebration may be premature, warning that the government’s optimism could be undermined by structural weaknesses and unrealistic assumptions.
Within the Legislature and broader policy community, reactions are mixed. Finance Ministry officials insist that the government has the capacity to meet the target, citing enhanced domestic revenue mobilization and stronger compliance measures. LRA Commissioner General Dorbor Jallah maintained during the MICAT briefing that Liberia is “on track” despite the absence of AML’s contribution, pointing to on-going reforms that could expand the tax net and improve efficiency.
Former Senate Pro-Tempore Armah Zulu Jallah dismissed the budget as “too much for salaries, too little for development”, noting that recurrent expenditures dominate while infrastructure remains underfunded. Other lawmakers expressed skepticism, arguing that the government is banking on revenues that may never materialize. “Without AML’s US$200 million, this budget is more symbolic than practical,” one legislator noted. Civil society groups have also raised alarms, describing the allocations as unrealistic and warning of potential shortfalls that could threaten public services.
Analysts reviewing the draft budget have flagged the heavy emphasis on recurrent spending. Basic salaries and operational costs consume a significant share of the proposed expenditure, leaving limited room for capital investment. Key sectors essential to Liberia’s long-term growth—such as roads, energy, and healthcare—receive allocations far below what experts say is necessary to drive development. Revenue assumptions by the Liberia Revenue Authority hinge on robust tax compliance and expansion of the formal economy, despite Liberia’s large informal sector and weak enforcement mechanisms.
The exclusion of AML’s US$200 million contribution is one of the most concerning factors. Jallah confirmed during the MICAT briefing that AML’s revenue is not included in the current framework. Given AML’s longstanding role as one of Liberia’s largest taxpayers, the omission is significant. Historically, domestic revenue collection has struggled to exceed US$700–800 million annually, making the US$1 billion target appear ambitious without AML’s support. Closing the gap would likely require borrowing, increased donor support, or aggressive taxation.
However, aggressive taxation is unlikely to succeed in the short term. Many Liberians either do not pay taxes or routinely underpay. Critics have long accused government officials, business elites, and wealthy individuals of evading taxes with little enforcement. This entrenched culture of weak compliance undermines the LRA’s optimistic projections and raises serious doubts about whether the billion-dollar target can realistically be achieved.
Economists warn that turning to donors or borrowing to fill the revenue gap carries risks. Donor support often comes with conditions and cannot reliably sustain a budget of this scale. Borrowing, meanwhile, increases Liberia’s debt burden and threatens future fiscal stability.
Critics warn that the celebrated budget achievement is at risk for three major reasons: revenue shortfall, structural imbalance, and political skepticism. The absence of AML’s US$200 million leaves a significant gap in the government’s projections. Structural imbalance, reflected in the dominance of recurrent spending, undermines development priorities. Political skepticism—from lawmakers including Senator Amara Konneh of Gbarpolu County and former Pro-Tempore Armah Zulu Jallah—reflects wider doubts about the government’s fiscal discipline and its ability to deliver on this ambitious target.
The Unity Party’s US$1 billion budget may be historic in ambition, but its sustainability is far from guaranteed. Unless AML’s contribution is secured or alternative revenue sources are identified, the achievement risks collapsing under the weight of unrealistic allocations and over-optimistic projections. The debate highlights a deeper national concern—the need for a more balanced, development-oriented budget that prioritizes roads, energy, healthcare, and economic growth over a ballooning wage bill. Whether the Unity Party can translate its celebrated milestone into tangible progress for Liberia remains an open question.