A Rejoinder To Daily Observer’s “Lost Revenue” Article, By Frank Kermue [frankkermue27@gmail.com]
The Core Problem
The Daily Observer’s November 14, 2025 article claiming Liberia “lost” $14-18 billion under AML’s railway monopoly is propaganda, not journalism. This brings shame to Kenneth Y. Best’s legacy as a press freedom hero and founder of Liberia’s first independent newspaper.
Five Fatal Flaws in the Observer’s Analysis
1. THE MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY
Observer Claims: $14-18 billion revenue from transporting 9 billion tons over 25 years
Reality: This requires 360 million tons per year
Railway Capacity: 40-50 million tons per year maximum (even after upgrades)
Conclusion: The Observer’s projection requires 7-12 times the railway’s physical capacity. This is fantasy, not analysis.
2. THE GEOGRAPHIC FALLACY
Observer Implies: Liberia’s 17 billion tons of iron ore could use Yekepa-Buchanan railway
Reality:
- Putu Iron Ore: Located in Grand Gedeh County, 320km from corridor—geographically impossible to use this railway
- Bong Mines: Different railway corridor entirely
- Only Northern Nimba deposits can realistically access Yekepa-Buchanan railway
Conclusion: Observer pretends all Liberian iron ore deposits can use one railway. This is geographically absurd.
3. THE GUINEA GAMBIT COLLAPSES
Observer Assumes: Guinea will export iron ore through Liberia
Reality (November 11, 2025): Guinea just inaugurated the Trans-Guinean Railway (TGR)—a $20+ billion, 650km railway to its own deep-water port
Key Facts:
- Guinea invested $20+ billion in its OWN infrastructure
- Since Guinea’s 2021 government change, ZERO contact with Liberia about the Condé-era agreement
- TGR is now operational—Guinea’s iron ore will use Guinea’s infrastructure
- HPX/Ivanhoe’s business model assumes Guinean transit through Liberia—an assumption now invalidated
Conclusion: Observer’s entire analysis depends on Guinea using Liberia’s railway. Guinea just spent $20 billion to avoid exactly that.
4. THE OMITTED CONTEXT
What Observer Ignores:
- AML’s $800+ million investment rebuilt the railway after civil war destruction
- Railway was completely destroyed before AML—alternative was zero revenue, not fantasy billions
- 20-year period included post-conflict instability, commodity price crashes, operational challenges
- AML’s under-$700 million contribution came while rebuilding infrastructure the government couldn’t afford
- Jobs, multiplier effects, infrastructure built with private capital
Conclusion: Observer compares actual revenue to fantasy revenue, ignoring that without AML, revenue would have been zero.
5. THE HPX AGENDA
Who Benefits from This Article?
- HPX/Ivanhoe Atlantic demands 20-30 million tons per year of rail capacity
- This exceeds AML’s own production
- Observer’s article supports exactly what HPX wants—access to infrastructure AML rebuilt
- Observer publishes three days after TGR inauguration without mentioning it—deliberate omission
Conclusion: This isn’t journalism; it’s advocacy for a company whose business model just collapsed with Guinea’s TGR launch.
What Liberia Actually “Lost” (Realistic Assessment)
Plausible Third-Party Revenue: $10-30 million per year from small-scale third-party users
20-Year Total: $200-600 million (real money, but nowhere near Observer’s fantasy and that s if these mines were actually developed which they never were)
Caveat: This assumes mines that never developed and users that never materialized
What Was Never Possible:
- ❌ The $14-18 billion (requires impossible 360 mtpa capacity)
- ❌ Guinea’s iron ore (Guinea built its own railway)
- ❌ Putu’s contribution (wrong geographic location)
The Disgrace to Kenneth Y. Best’s Legacy
Who is Kenneth Y. Best?
- Founder of Daily Observer (1981)—Liberia’s first independent daily newspaper
- World Press Freedom Hero (2000)
- Imprisoned, harassed, exiled for truth-telling
- Built reputation on independence, courage, facts
The Tragedy: While Mr. Best (now 87) is still alive, his newspaper publishes as editorial judgement:
- Mathematical impossibilities ($14B projection)
- Geographic absurdities (all deposits using one railway)
- Deliberate omissions (TGR inauguration)
- Advocacy disguised as journalism (benefiting HPX)
This is shameful. Kenneth Y. Best risked everything for press freedom and journalistic integrity. His newspaper now abandons both principles to serve “puppet masters.”
What Honest Policy Would Look Like
1. Accept Reality
- Railway capacity: 40-50 mtpa maximum
- Guinea: will use its own infrastructure
- Putu: needs its own railway (different location)
- Realistic third-party revenue: $10-30 million/year, not billions if these projects are developed
2. Balanced Multi-User Framework
- Protect AML’s $800M investment
- Allow third-party access for realistic volumes
- Base allocation on actual capacity, not fantasy projections
- Clear governance for shared use
3. Stop Chasing Fantasy
- No policy should assume 360 mtpa throughput
- No policy should assume Guinea changing its TGR strategy
- No policy should favor one company (HPX) whose business model may be unviable
4. Independent Analysis
- Commission genuinely independent technical studies
- Not advocacy disguised as analysis
- Based on engineering reality, not political wishes
Key Questions for the Daily Observer
- Why didn’t you mention Guinea’s TGR inauguration on November 11—three days before your article?
- How can a railway with 40-50 mtpa capacity transport 360 mtpa? Show the engineering.
- How can Putu Iron Ore (located in Grand Gedeh County, 320km away) use the Yekepa-Buchanan railway?
- Who paid for this article? Follow the money.
- What would Kenneth Y. Best say about publishing mathematical impossibilities as journalism?
Bottom Line
The Daily Observer article is propaganda, not journalism.
- Built on mathematical impossibilities
- Ignores geographic reality
- Omits critical context (TGR inauguration)
- Serves special interests (HPX)
- Betrays Kenneth Y. Best’s legacy
Liberia deserves honest debate about railway policy based on facts:
- Real capacity constraints
- Geographic realities
- Investment protection
- Genuine revenue potential
What Liberia doesn’t need: Captured media publishing fantasy projections to please companies whose business models just collapsed.
Kenneth Y. Best built the Observer to speak truth to power. It’s time for his newspaper to remember why it was founded.
For Further Information
See full rejoinder document for detailed analysis including:
- Engineering capacity calculations
- Geographic analysis of deposit locations
- Guinea’s TGR project details
- AML’s investment and contribution context
- Policy recommendations for balanced reform
The full rejoinder, coming out on Monday, November 17, 2025, provides comprehensive documentation of every claim made in this summary.